360iDev Success

360iDev in San Jose was a blast!  I had the great fortune to be the lead off keynote speaker and got a great reaction to my message to the developer community.

Here is a mention of this part plus a subsequent interview with me on TUAW.

As usual 360iDev delivered a great line up speakers (both the big draws like Saurik and Keith and Natalia, and Mr. Doodle Jump himself Igor Pusenjak, and a good PR talk from Chris Heintz) and several new speakers.  Was every talk a knock-out?  No, there are always some duds in a thing like this.  But that's okay.  You expect them to not only bring you the great speakers but also audition new ones to seek out fresh blood and new ideas.  This last bit is a key mechanism for bulding out a bull pen of new pitchers.  If this didn't happen you'd never get any new stars, and nothing new to learn.

Like the first 360 I went too, I found this show to be a complete blast!  The people are great, and you get a sense of community and common purpose like no other show I can think of.  I love myself some GDC iPhone Summit and others, but it's 360iDev that seems to have mastered the layed back attitude that I enjoy.

Nuking the Developer Ecosystem

The big topic of dicussions was the recent changes to the iPhone/iPad developer agreement and the new features in the upcoming 4.0 OS.  Both of these things have had a dramatic impact on the middleware ecosystem that surrounds iPhone development.  With popular 3rd party middleware platforms ranging from OpenFeint to Unity3D either usurped by Apple directly or potentially disallowed by edict, the mood at the show was certainly on edge.

I hosted an impromptu session at 360iDev so middleware vendors and developers could hash this new world out some.  The Corona team was there in force and very forthcoming about their views of their ongoing business.  Some others, who were invited and said they'd show, didn't (I'm looking at you Jason).  This added to the sense that not all was well in the world.

There's been a lot written about this on the intertubes of late.  Most of it about if tools like Unity3D, Furry or various ad servering platforms do or do not violate the various new rules.  But all of this discussion entirely misses the point.

The problem is that we're even having this discussion.

Think of it this way: If you are an iPhone game developer, you use to have a lot of options for what tools you might to use.  Unity3D is an obvious one.  But now, in this new world order, you have to ask yourself what the risk is of using such any tool that isn't XCode.  Does the new developer agreement language outlaw such tools?  The uncertainty is scary enough, but the real problem is that even if you come to the conclusion that it doesn't you then have to wonder about if they'll outlaw it in the future.  Afterall, Apple has shown that it's definitely willing to do this sort of thing for whatever reasons it has at any time it chooses, without warming or perhaps even explaination.

I maintain a list of tools for iPhone/iPad developers here.

If your company makes iPhone middleware then you are probably scrambling to figure out what's going on.  Worse, you are also have to be looking at how you can adapt to a new business model really fast.  OpenFeint has one such solution with its OpenFeint X microtrans layer (since the basic features of OpenFeint itself will be susurped by Apple's Game Center stuff).  But what good does that do them when Apple might just add these features to the Game Center stuff in some subsequent release?

Imagine if you are a enterprising entrepreneur who's been excited by the opporuntities Apple has made for us in the iPhone/iPad space, and you have an idea for some new middleware platform to enable developers to do something cool, more efficient, cross-platform or what have you.  Does it make sense to invest your sweat and coin in such an undertaking when Apple has shown that it has no problem just invalidating your entire bussiness model with no warning at all?

Could you get any institutional money for such a venture?  What VC would look at these developments and not figure your idea carries a pretty scary risk profile?

The bottom line is that these moves by Apple has created a palpable chlling effect on the entire middleware eco-system for iPhone/iPad development.  No one argues that they do not have the right to do this.  There are some big strategic issues at play here for Apple.  The real question is if they realized the impact on the developer ecosystem when they did this.  Is this collatoral damage?  Do they realize how bad it could really be?  Or was this acceptable losses, or even entirely intentional?  Were they a bull in a china shop or a steel-nerved sniper?

And just how far does the damage go?  As the organisers of 360iDev pointed out to me, essentially all of their sponsors are affected by this and may not exist the next time the show comes around.  Will the impact be a ripple or a tsunami?

I am a huge Apple supporter and a aggressive evangalist of becoming a developer on this platform.  My admiration of what they have created here is well documented.  But I fear that swinging a hamfisted hammer around the developer community could lead to a backlash that ultimately undoes it.

Does that seem extreme?  Pure hyperbole?  Am I blowing it out of proprotion? Consider there was a time when Sony owned the console business and it was inconcieveable they'd ever be unseated.  They were also known for bullying their developers and when something came along that was more developer-friendly, they were eager to move on.

Apps are what makes the iPhone/iPad valuable.  Apple knows this.  Just look at their commercials.

And developers make the Apps.

Say what you will about Microsoft, but they wouldn't have done this.  Combined with an upcoming product that looks like it might be a winner, and if they implement their marketplace correctly, their developer-centric attitude will give them an edge that might matter.  Perhaps before what happened here I would have been inclined to just say "too little, too late" to Microsoft, but Apple has just given them an opporutnity (however slim) to make a move.

If this comes to pass we might be at the moment we look back on and can say this is where Apple blew it.

I hope not.